Oil fuels international conflict through eight distinct mechanisms: (1) resource wars, in which states try to acquire oil reserves by force; (2) petro-aggression, whereby oil insulates aggressive leaders such as Saddam Hussein or Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini from domestic opposition, and therefore makes them more willing to engage in risky foreign policy adventurism; (3) the externalization of civil wars in oil-producing states ("petrostates"); (4) financing for insurgencies—for instance, Iran funneling oil money to Hezbollah; (5) conflicts triggered by the prospect of oil-market domination, such as the United States' war with Iraq over Kuwait in 1991; (6) clashes over control of oil transit routes, such as shipping lanes and pipelines; (7) oil-related grievances, whereby the presence of foreign workers in petrostates helps extremist groups such as al-Qaida recruit locals; and (8) oil-related obstacles to multilateral cooperation, such as when an importer's attempt to curry favor with a petrostate prevents multilateral cooperation on security issues.
How does the oil industry cause war?
The oil industry can cause or exacerbate conflict in multiple ways: competition over shipping lanes and pipelines, oil-related terrorism, petro-aggression, and resource scarcity in consumer states are all potential sources of international conflict. Oil as a Leading Cause of War
Are oil and natural gas in conflict?
As worldwide oil and gas production peaks and consumer demand continues to rise, prices soar, making conflicts for this increasingly scarce resource even more likely in the future. This page provides a general analysis on the oil and natural gas in conflict.
How did oil influence the Iraq War?
The influence of oil on conflict is often poorly understood. In U.S. public debates about the 1991 and 2003 Iraq wars, both sides focused excessively on the question of whether the United States was fighting for possession of oil reserves; neither sought a broader understanding of how oil shaped the preconditions for war.
How does oil affect international security?
Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms. No other commodity has had such an impact on international security. The influence of oil on conflict is often poorly understood.
How does oil industry cause conflict?
What will happen if oil prices remain high?
How can the United States contribute to international security?
How many developing countries will become oil exporters in the near future?
Does fracking change the fundamentals?
Is oil a cause of war?
Does oil affect international security?
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About this website
Has there ever been conflict over oil?
Many of these clashes—including World War II, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait (1990), the U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003), the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the Falklands War (1982), and the Chaco War between Bolivia and Paraguay (1932-1935)—have been described as classic oil wars: that is, severe international conflicts in which ...
Why is oil so important in war?
Oil, in all its forms, was absolutely necessary to wartime campaigns around the world: laying runways, making bombs, manufacturing synthetic rubber for tires, lubricant for guns and machinery, and of course – to fuel the modern military tanks, vehicles, and aircraft.
What is the conflict over oil in the Middle East?
The oil crisis The countries which were members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), supported by the Soviets, thus forced a sharp rise in the price of crude oil, which led to a global energy crisis. Oil became a weapon in the international struggle against Israel and its allies.
How does oil perform during war?
Oil prices are high in the initial years of wars but tend to subsequently decline, perhaps because higher prices reduce oil demand and eventually oil prices. 4. Higher oil prices have a negative impact on global economic performance. The data suggest an inverse relationship between global oil prices and global growth.
Why do countries go to war over oil?
Although countries did fight over oil-endowed territories, they usually fought for other reasons, including aspirations to regional hegemony, domestic politics, national pride, or contested territories' other strategic, economic, or symbolic assets.
How much oil is used in war?
The Department of Defense uses 4,600,000,000 US gallons (1.7×1010 L) of fuel annually, an average of 12,600,000 US gallons (48,000,000 L) of fuel per day. A large Army division may use about 6,000 US gallons (23,000 L) per day.
How does oil affect the environment?
Oil and gas drilling has a serious impact on our wildlands and communities. Drilling projects operate around the clock generating pollution, fueling climate change, disrupting wildlife and damaging public lands that were set aside to benefit all people.
How do conflicts in the Middle East affect the oil industry?
In other words, data suggests that military conflicts over oil result in significant disruptions in oil capacity in the medium term and beyond, driving prices higher for some period of time until markets can adjust.
Who has the most oil in the world?
Venezuela has the largest amount of oil reserves in the world with more than 300 billion barrels in reserve. Saudi Arabia has the second-largest amount of oil reserves in the world with 297.5 billion barrels. Despite Venezuela's massive supply of natural resources, the country still struggles economically.
How does the Russia Ukraine war affect oil prices?
Strong economic recovery coupled with low investment in oil production were hugely exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This sent the oil price to stratospheric levels and this is being passed over to consumers at the pump.
Why is the war in Ukraine affecting fuel prices?
Second, the conflict in Ukraine. After Putin invaded, the West introduced financial sanctions that made it difficult to clear Russian oil transactions through Western banks. Russian oil normally accounts for about 10% of global oil supply. It's still being traded, but not to the same degree, so we have a gap in supply.
Why is the war in Ukraine rising gas prices?
Gasoline prices are based on the cost of crude oil, which jumped in response to the invasion and Western sanctions. With the announcement on Tuesday that the United States and Britain would ban imports of Russian energy, the climb in world oil prices appeared to be far from over.
Why is oil so important?
Oil: lifeblood of the industrialised nations Oil has become the world's most important source of energy since the mid-1950s. Its products underpin modern society, mainly supplying energy to power industry, heat homes and provide fuel for vehicles and aeroplanes to carry goods and people all over the world.
How did oil affect WWI?
In World War I, the mobility of troops was of major strategic importance. New transportation means like trucks, as well as war planes, submarines and tanks, which began to revolutionize warfare between 1914 and 1918, were driven by oil-based fuel.
When did oil become a military resource?
Oil became a key factor in military might in the decade before World War 1 when the UK Royal Navy and US Navy shifted from coal to oil as a source of power which was soon emulated by other major navies. By 1939, all naval vessels in the world and 85% of the merchant ships were burning oil for propulsion.
Where did Germany get its oil in ww2?
It imported oil from the Soviet Union until the German invasion of that country in June 1941 and from Hungary and Romania (25 percent of its annual requirements by 1944) after April 1941 when these two countries became German allies prior to the Soviet invasion.
5 Oil Wars That Ended in Disaster | The National Interest
5 Oil Wars That Ended in Disaster. From Hitler to Saddam, oil has often been a dangerous temptation.
Oil Wars: These 5 Conflicts Changed World History
Destroying the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor did not solve Japan's oil problem. Capturing the Asian oil fields was easy, but shipping the oil back to Japan was not.
America, Oil, and War in the Middle East - Oxford Academic
For an alternative take on the political economy of oil and the need to protect supply, see Timothy Mitchell, “McJihad: Islam in the U.S. Global Order,” Social Text, 20 (Winter 2002), 5. Timothy Mitchell notes that “contrary to popular belief, there is too much [oil].
Where are fossil fuels triggering conflicts?
Fossil fuels are triggering violent conflicts all over the world, says Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College in Massachusetts, the US. Klare zooms in on four areas – Iraq/Syria, South Sudan, the Crimea/Ukraine, and the South China Sea – to argue that the desire to control valuable oil ...
Why is ISIS selling oil to the Syrian regime?
Many observers also claim that ISIS is selling oil to the Assad regime in return for immunity from government air strikes of the sort being launched against other rebel groups. “Many locals in Raqqa accuse ISIS of collaborating with the Syrian regime,” a Kurdish journalist, Sirwan Kajjo, reported in early June.
How did the conflict in South Sudan end?
A civil war in Sudan that lasted from 1955 to 1972 only ended when the Muslim-dominated government in the north agreed to grant more autonomy to the peoples of the southern part of the country, largely practitioners of traditional African religions or Christianity. However, when oil was discovered in the south, the rulers of northern Sudan repudiated many of their earlier promises and sought to gain control over the oil fields, sparking a second civil war, which lasted from 1983 to 2005. An estimated two million people lost their lives in this round of fighting. In the end, the south was granted full autonomy and the right to vote on secession. Following a January 2011 referendum in which 98.8% of southerners voted to secede, the country became independent on that July 9th.
What are the countries that are aflame with new or intensifying conflicts?
Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, South Sudan, Ukraine, the East and South China Seas: wherever you look, the world is aflame with new or intensifying conflicts. At first glance, these upheavals appear to be independent events, driven by their own unique and idiosyncratic circumstances. But look more closely and they share several key characteristics – notably, a witch’s brew of ethnic, religious, and national antagonisms that have been stirred to the boiling point by a fixation on energy.
Why did the HD-981 cause riots?
The riots and clashes sparked by the deployment of HD-981 have been driven in large part by nationalism and resentment over past humiliations. The Chinese, insisting that various tiny islands in the South China Sea were once ruled by their country, still seek to overcome the territorial losses and humiliations they suffered at the hands the Western powers and Imperial Japan. The Vietnamese, long accustomed to Chinese invasions, seek to protect what they view as their sovereign territory. For common citizens in both countries, demonstrating resolve in the dispute is a matter of national pride.
Where is ISIS oil?
However, as it now occupies key oil-producing areas of Syria and oil-refining facilities in Iraq, it is in a unique position to do so. Oil, then, is absolutely essential to the organization’s grand strategy.
Can ISIS achieve its goals without oil?
Without oil, ISIS could never hope to accomplish its ambitious goals.
What are the two stages of oil conflict?
Oil conflicts often occur in either of two stages. The firstly is it may occur before the oil itself is discovered (Basedau & Wegenast, 2009, p. 39). This is where discovery has been made and it has been found that there is a likely hood of oil discovery. The second one may occur where the oil is already being produced. The reasons for this conflict may be divided into three main reasons.
What are the main causes of the conflict in the Philippines?
The area in question is said to have large deposits of oil and natural gas. All nations around the island, including Philippines and China want to exploit these coffers. Manila asserts a 200-nautical mile absolute economic zone stretching into the South China Sea from its western shoreline, a region it named the West Philippine Sea. Beijing has also asserted sovereignty over the whole area, counting the waters petitioned by Manila. Despite years of dialogue, no solution has been found yet further clashes over oil and other resources are likely (Buszynski, 2012, p. 141).
Why is the Middle East so complex?
The situation in the Middle East is grave and complex for three reasons. Firstly, there is opposition between the Arab countries plus Palestine and Israel. Secondly, there are the difficult relations among a number of the Arab countries themselves {6}. Finally, there are hostilities within some of the countries based on religious and political differences. The war between Iran and Iraq served to remove these two countries from list of major oil exporters (Humphreys, 2005, p. 512).
How do nations interact with each other?
The world’s nations interact with each other in their pursuit of external natural resources through governmental and non-governmental avenues in an astonishing variety of bilateral and multilateral ways. These international interactions change with time, ranging from cordial and synergistic to antagonistic and destructive (Cotet & Tsui, 2013, p. 51). For instance, one of the several explicitly enunciated national-security objectives of the USA is to protect U.S. economic interests worldwide by maintaining steady access to energy supplies, other critical resources, and foreign markets. The relations among subdivisions or portions of a nation similarly range in changing patterns from the harmonious to the discordant. At the negative extreme of these spectra of international and domestic interaction are found overt threats of aggression and the actual pursuit of war (Cotet & Tsui, 2013, p. 51).
What conflict is 3.4.1?
3.4.1. The Sudan and South Sudan Conflict
Why is there a lot of boarder conflict in South Sudan?
Recently, South Sudan and Sudan have been having a lot of boarder conflict that can be attributed to the existence of oil reservoirs that each state believes belong to them .
What caused the conflict between the southern and northern states?
This conflict was caused by factors such as economic differences between the two states, and a long-lasting enmity between the southerners and the northerners. The biggest cause of this conflict however is oil, and the revenues produced by oil {2} (Johnson, 2003, p. 115). Another evidence of conflicts caused by oil is the naval clash in the South China Sea {3} (Buszynski, 2012, p. 140).
General Analysis
This page provides a general analysis on the oil and natural gas in conflict.
Africa
This page provides articles, documents and other information on oil and natural gas in conflict in Africa.
Middle East
This section provides information on oil and natural gas leading to conflict in the Middle East.
Russia, the Balkans and Central Asia
This page provides articles and documents on oil and natural gas in Russia, the Balkans and Central Asia.
Southeast Asia
This page provides articles and documents on oil and natural gas in Southeast Asia.
South and Central America
This section provides articles and documents on oil and natural gas leading to conflict in South and Central America.
North America
This section provides information on oil and natural gas in North America.
What are the causes of the oilfield conflict?
While the immediate causes of this conflict are control of oilfields and territorial disputes, the tension is rooted in a deeper clash of culture, religion and politics.
What was the name of the army that attacked Chevron oil?
Colonel John Garang formed the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA), attacking Chevron oil installations. By 1993 the war against the south had become a jihad, with the current ruler Brigadier Omar al-Bashir staging a successful coup with the support of the National Islamic Front under Hassan al-Turabi.
Where is Khartoum's oil field?
The government in Khartoum has launched military attacks in the disputed border district of Abyei where much of Khartoum’s remaining oil fields are located. Southern Kordofan was suppose to hold a separate referendum to decide whether it stayed in Sudan or joined South Sudan.
Which country is the fifth largest supplier of oil to China?
Sudan became the fifth largest supplier of oil to China in 2012, exporting 67% of its oil to the rising nation. But most of the oil in the region is in South Sudan, and al-Bashir’s government in Khartoum was increasingly dependant upon oil revenue to survive. In January 2012, faced with falling revenue, al-Bashir raised ...
When did Chevron find oil?
In 1978, Chevron discovered oil in the Bentu and Heglig districts of southern Sudan, and America resumed foreign aid to Sudan. At this stage, the Sudan was the world’s sixth largest recipient of U.S. military aid. The central government in Khartoum was determined to control the oil fields from the outset, and moved to create ...
How much oil did the bombs hit?
When the bombs hit Abqaiq, they knocked out 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil production and 5% of the world’s oil supply.
What would happen if the world faced a 4 million barrel per day shortfall?
If the world faced a 4 million barrel per day shortfall, only the folks who could pay would get the oil.
What conflict happened in 2012?
From the Atlantic to the Pacific, Argentina to the Philippines, here are the six areas of conflict -- all tied to energy supplies -- that have made news in just the first few months of 2012: * A brewing war between Sudan and South Sudan: On April 10th, forces from the newly independent state of South Sudan occupied the oil center of Heglig, ...
What is the conflict between Sudan and the North?
This conflict is being fueled by many factors, including economic disparities between the two Sudans and an abiding animosity between the southerners (who are mostly black Africans and Christians or animists) and the northerners (mostly Arabs and Muslims). But oil -- and the revenues produced by oil -- remains at the heart of the matter . When Sudan was divided in 2011, the most prolific oil fields wound up in the south, while the only pipeline capable of transporting the south’s oil to international markets (and thus generating revenue) remained in the hands of the northerners. They have been demanding exceptionally high “transit fees” -- $32-$36 per barrel compared to the common rate of $1 per barrel -- for the privilege of bringing the South’s oil to market. When the southerners refused to accept such rates, the northerners confiscated money they had already collected from the south’s oil exports, its only significant source of funds. In response, the southerners stopped producing oil altogether and, it appears, launched their military action against the north. The situation remains explosive.
Who was the first leader to appreciate the importance of oil?
This is hardly a new phenomenon. Early in the last century, Winston Churchill was perhaps the first prominent leader to appreciate the strategic importance of oil. As First Lord of the Admiralty, he converted British warships from coal to oil and then persuaded the cabinet to nationalize the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, the forerunner of British Petroleum (now BP). The pursuit of energy supplies for both industry and war-fighting played a major role in the diplomacy of the period between the World Wars, as well as in the strategic planning of the Axis powers during World War II. It also explains America’s long-term drive to remain the dominant power in the Persian Gulf that culminated in the first Gulf War of 1990-91 and its inevitable sequel, the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Which countries want to develop oil and gas in the South China Sea?
China and the Philippines both want the right to develop oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea, and even if the deposits around Scarborough Shoal prove meager, China is unwilling to back down in any localized dispute that might undermine its claim to sovereignty over the entire region.
How does oil industry cause conflict?
The oil industry can cause or exacerbate conflict in multiple ways: competition over shipping lanes and pipelines, oil-related terrorism, petro-aggression, and resource scarcity in consumer states are all potential sources of international conflict.
What will happen if oil prices remain high?
Furthermore, if oil prices remain high, incentives for resource grabs will grow. Resource wars are most likely to occur in unpopulated territories or naval zones, as oil can be extracted from these areas without the need to manage a populated, potentially hostile territory.
How can the United States contribute to international security?
Rather than viewing energy self-sufficiency as a panacea, the United States should contribute to international security by making long-term investments in research and development to reduce oil consumption and provide alternative fuel sources in the transportation sector.
How many developing countries will become oil exporters in the near future?
As many as sixteen developing countries will become oil exporters in the near future, creating a swath of new international security concerns. Second, the low oil prices of the 1990s have given way to higher and more volatile prices, increasing the magnitude of the consequences one can expect from oil-conflict linkages.
Does fracking change the fundamentals?
Fracking Does Not Change the Fundamentals. Although hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") is transforming the U.S. oil and gas sector, the United States will not be isolated from foreign markets and events.
Is oil a cause of war?
Oil as a Leading Cause of War. Although the threat of "resource wars" over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war.
Does oil affect international security?
No other commodity has had such an impact on international security. The influence of oil on conflict is often poorly understood. In U.S. public debates about the 1991 and 2003 Iraq wars, both sides focused excessively on the question of whether the United States was fighting for possession of oil reserves; neither sought a broader understanding ...
Bottom Lines
- Oil Is a Leading Cause of War. Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been linked to oil.
- Fracking Does Not Change the Fundamentals. Although hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") is transforming the U.S. oil and gas sector, the United States will not be isolated from foreign markets and ev...
- Oil Is a Leading Cause of War. Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been linked to oil.
- Fracking Does Not Change the Fundamentals. Although hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") is transforming the U.S. oil and gas sector, the United States will not be isolated from foreign markets and ev...
- Watch Out for Unexpected Sources of Conflict. The oil industry can cause or exacerbate conflict in multiple ways: competition over shipping lanes and pipelines, oil-related terrorism, petro-aggress...
Oil as A Leading Cause of War
- Although the threat of "resource wars" over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war. Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms. No other commodity has had such an impact on internatio…
The Role of Fracking
- Understanding the eight mechanisms linking oil to international security can help policymakers think beyond the much-discussed goal of energy security, defined as reliable access to affordable fuel supplies. Achieving such an understanding is important in light of recent changes in the United States. As hydraulic fracturing—"fracking"—of shale oil and gas accelerates, energy impor…
Unexpected Sources of Conflict
- Policymakers must also think systematically about oil-security linkages when monitoring emerging security threats as the global oil industry transforms itself. With sixteen additional countries potentially exporting oil in the near future, new international dynamics will materialize, especially in Africa. Furthermore, if oil prices remain high, incentives for resource grabs will gro…
Conclusion
- Appreciating the eight ways in which oil contributes to war can help policymakers design grand strategy, allocate military resources, and shape domestic energy policy. Policy analysts tend to focus too narrowly on "energy security" as defined only by reliable access to fuel supplies, while missing the broader relationships between energy and security. Only by thinking systematically …
Related Resources
- Colgan, Jeff D. Petro-Aggression: When Oil Causes War (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013). Duffield, John. Over a Barrel: The Costs of U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford Law and Politics, 2007). Gholz, Eugene, and Daryl G. Press. "Protecting 'The Prize': Oil and the U.S. National Interest," Security Studies, Vol. 19, No. 3 (July/September 2010), pp. 453–485. …
Iraq, Syria, and Isis
Ukraine, The Crimea, and Russia
Nigeria and South Sudan
The South China Sea
No End to Fighting
- As these conflicts and others like them suggest, fighting for control over key energy assets or the distribution of oil revenues is a critical factorin most contemporary warfare. While ethnic and religious divisions may provide the political and ideological fuel for these battles, it is the potential for mammoth oil profits that keeps the struggles...
Introduction
Oil and Conflict
Types of Oil Conflicts
- Oil conflicts often occur in either of two stages. The firstly is it may occur before the oil itself is discovered (Basedau & Wegenast, 2009, p. 39). This is where discovery has been made and it has been found that there is a likely hood of oil discovery. The second one may occur where the oil is already being produced. The reasons for this conflic...
Recommendations
Conclusion
Notes