The idea of unknown unknowns was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft (1916–2014) and Harrington Ingham (1916–1995) in their development of the Johari window. They used it as a technique to help people better understand their relationship with themselves as well as others. The term was also commonly used inside NASA.
Are there unknown unknowns?
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” At first I wasn’t going to tackle this passage because some people may believe that I have some political sympathy for Donald Rumsfeld and what he said.
What did Rumsfeld say about unknown unknowns?
Rumsfeld stated: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
Where did the phrases ‘known unknowns’ come from?
Rumsfeld himself wrote: “I first heard a variant of the phrase ‘known unknowns’ in a discussion with former NASA administrator William R. Graham, when we served together on the Ballistic Missile Threat Commission in the late 1990s.” Indeed my bet is that these phrases can probably be found many times before the 1990s.
What is the importance of characterization of unknown unknowns?
Through the characterization of unknown unknowns, the model helps identify what had been believed to be unidentifiable or unimaginable risks. Finding more unknown unknowns means converting them to known unknowns so that they become manageable using project risk management.
What is Donald Rumsfeld famous for?
Donald Henry Rumsfeld (July 9, 1932 – June 29, 2021) was an American politician, government official and businessman who served as Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 under president Gerald Ford, and again from 2001 to 2006 under President George W. Bush. He was both the youngest and the oldest secretary of defense.
Is Donald Rumsfeld dead?
Deceased (1932–2021)Donald Rumsfeld / Living or Deceased
How can you identify unknown unknowns?
Simple Ways to Spot Unknown UnknownsSeek out an inside perspective. My biggest shortcoming in the doctoral debacle was my failure to seek out an inside perspective on the application process. ... War-game your potential failures. ... Test for implicit assumptions.
What is the difference between known unknown and unknown unknown risks?
When considering risk, known knowns are those matters which you are fully aware of and can plan for in advance. Known unknowns are those risks which you 'know that you don't know' – risks that you know exist, but can't accurately quantify their potential impact.
Who was the oldest Secretary of Defense?
The longest-serving secretary of defense is Robert McNamara, who served for a total of 7 years, 39 days.
What caused Iraq to invade Kuwait?
Iraq's leader, Saddam Hussein, ordered the invasion and occupation of Kuwait with the apparent aim of acquiring that nation's large oil reserves, canceling a large debt Iraq owed Kuwait, and expanding Iraqi power in the region.
What is known unknown knowledge?
A known unknown is information whose existence someone is aware of but does not possess. Known unknowns are what drives many scientific experiments, search engine and database queries, business intelligence (BI) and data analytics, among other channels of inquiry.
What risks are examples of unknown unknowns?
Let's explore a few examples of known unknowns that we typically experience in a CTRM or Risk Advisory project:Changes to the business. ... Technology disruptors. ... Market shifts. ... Geopolitical events. ... Loss of key resources. ... Acts of God. ... Have a Plan B ready. ... Include contingency.More items...
Are natural disasters known unknowns?
Most natural disasters are uncertain events but people already know what they are. In this matrix, known unknowns usually are treated as “risks” in project risk management (PRM) as defined in A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge Guide (PMBOK® Guide) (Project Management Institute, 2008).
Who said there are known unknowns?
The idea of unknown unknowns was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft (1916–2014) and Harrington Ingham (1916–1995) in their development of the Johari window. They used it as a technique to help people better understand their relationship with themselves as well as others.
What are the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns of the project?
Known-unknowns: These are classic risks or risks what you as a project manager or risk manager most likely see. These are also called as “known risks” - known risks but with an unknown amount of rework. Unknown-unknowns: These are “unknown risks” - the unknown risks with unknown or unforeseen work.
What are the 3 types of risks?
Types of Risks Widely, risks can be classified into three types: Business Risk, Non-Business Risk, and Financial Risk.
How old was Donald Rumsfeld died?
88 years (1932–2021)Donald Rumsfeld / Age at death
Who was Donald Rumsfeld married to?
Joyce H. PiersonDonald Rumsfeld / Spouse (m. 1954–2021)
Who created the idea of unknown unknowns?
The idea of unknown unknowns was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft (1916–2014) and Harrington Ingham (1916–1995) in their development of the Johari window. They used it as a technique to help people better understand their relationship with themselves as well as others.
What is the unknown known?
The Unknown Known is the title of Errol Morris 's 2013 biographical documentary film about Rumsfeld. In the documentary, Rumsfield initially defines "unknown knowns" as "the things you think you know, that it turns out you did not", and toward the end of the film he defines the term as "things that you know, that you don't know you know".
What is the meaning of "there are known knowns"?
" There are known knowns " is a phrase from a response United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave to a question at a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) news briefing on February 12, 2002, about the lack of evidence linking the government ...
What does Rumsfeld say about things that haven't happened?
Rumsfeld stated: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
Who agreed with Rumsfeld's theory?
German sociologists Daase and Kessler (2007) agree with a basic point of Rumsfeld in stating that the cognitive frame for political practice may be determined by the relationship between what we know, what we do not know, what we cannot know, but Rumsfeld left out what we do not like to know.
Who was the NASA administrator who said "a variant of the phrase"?
The term was also commonly used inside NASA. Rumsfeld cited NASA administrator William Graham in his memoir; he wrote that he had first heard "a variant of the phrase" from Graham when they served together on the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States during the late 1990s.
Who directed the Unknown Known?
The statement became the subject of much commentary including a 2013 documentary film, The Unknown Known, directed by Errol Morris.
Who defines unknown knowns as: “that which we intentionally refuse to acknowledge that we know”?
The most poignant or these comes from psychoanalytic philosopher Slavoj Žižek, who defines unknown knowns as: “that which we intentionally refuse to acknowledge that we know”.
Who cited reports where people said that was not the case?
DONALD RUMSFELD: He cited reports where people said that was not the case.
Why don't you listen to science?
You don’t listen to the science because you are only interested in solutions that will enable you to carry on like before.
When did Rumsfeld give his response?
Department of Defense news briefing on February 12, 2002. (That’s five months after 9/11 and a year before the invasion of Iraq.)
Who said there are four types of men?
According to Wikipedia (a secondary source and therefore, potentially problematic) the earliest reference to this concept, can be traced to thirteenth-century Persian poet, Ibn Yamin, who said there are four types of men:
Who said "I'm not going to say which it is"?
DONALD RUMSFELD: I’m not going to say which it is.
Who is unsatisfied by Rumsfeld's answer?
Miklaszewski, unsatisfied by Rumsfeld’s answer, tries again to pin him down:
What is known unknown?
Known unknowns refers to things we know exist, but we do not have all the information. We might not know, for example, how many of them there are. For example, we know there are terrorists in the United States, United Kingdom, and France. However, we do not know how many there are. The number of terrorists in those countries is a known unknown.
How many terms relate to the word "known"?
Including unknown unknowns, four terms relate to the words ‘known’ or ‘unknown.’
Who was the Secretary of Defense in 2001?
Donald Rumsfeld was US Secretary of Defense from 2001 to 2006. A journalist asked him a question regarding the lack of evidence linking Iraq’s government with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. This was his answer:
What is the purpose of finding more unknown unknowns?
Finding more unknown unknowns means converting them to known unknowns so that they become manageable using project risk management.
Why are some events not identified?
All “unidentified” events are not the same in terms of knowledge gap. Some of them are not identified because there is no access to the knowledge or information even though they are available (Stoelsnesa, 2007). Some of them are unimaginable because the knowledge or information is not available. Some of them have already been detected but are neglected for some reason.
How to classify unidentified?
The other way to classify “unidentified” is by how the identification is separated . This model adopted separation principles of TRIZ (Savransky, 2000) to classify “unidentified” based on how the identification is separated. There are four basic separation principles and first one of them is separation by space labeled “space” in Exhibit 2. This means that a risk can be identified or not depending on physical space, geographical region, professional discipline, or individual. A knowledge or risk that is not identified in most places may be identified only in a region. A knowledge or risk that is not identified by most people may have been identified by an individual or a group of people. Second, one is separation by time labeled “time” in the table. This means that a risk can be identified or not depending on the timing. An event that is not identified right now may be identified at a specific point of time in a project. Some risks are time-dependent or progress-dependent and can be identified only at some point of time or phase in the project. Third, one is separation by condition labeled “condition” in the table. This means that a risk can be identified or not depending on conditions. The condition can be political condition, environmental condition, physical condition, or previous actions taken. Some risks are response-dependent, i.e., secondary risks, and they are conditioned to a specific response. The last one of them is separation by parts/whole labeled “parts/whole” in the table. This means that a risk can be identified or not depending on the scale. Some risks can be identified only at subsystem level, like components of a system or project. Some other risks can be identified only at super system level, like project, program, or enterprise. Some risks can be identified only in combination or interaction of multiple risks. Items in known knowns and known unknowns quadrants may feed into this category.
How many ways can a project be investigated?
In this table, a project can be investigated in 12 different combinations and it means that there are 12 different ways to identify unknown knowns or unknown unknowns. For example, instead of just trying to find any hidden risks in a project, a project manager can seek for hidden risks asking questions like “What can be a risk neglected by people?”, “What can be a risk that happens in a certain condition?”, or “What can be an “inaccessible” risk that happens when interacting with other events?”
What is subway uncertainty?
Subway uncertainty refers to what can be modeled and reasonably incorporated in probabilistic predictions that assume, for example, normally distributed forecasting errors. Coconut uncertainty pertains to events that cannot be modeled, and also to rare and unique events that are simply hard to envision. To put it simply, subway uncertainty is quantifiable and coconut uncertainty is not. Another way to categorize uncertainties is by whether knowledge and information about them exists but is not accessible, or simply does not exist. The impact of uncertainties of the latter type cannot be evaluated in advance (Stoelsnesa, 2007).
When are risks that are not identified separately identified?
Risks that are not identified separately may be identified when combined or interacting with each other in forms of new risks or unintended consequences.
Is an unknown event the same as an unimaginable event?
The study found that all unknown unknowns are not same and significant portion of them are not truly unimaginable. Unknown unknowns in Exhibit 1 can be interpreted as “unidentified uncertain event.” “Uncertain event” is not as simple as it may look.
Overview
Origins
Rumsfeld's statement brought much fame and public attention to the concepts of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, but national security and intelligence professionals have long used an analysis technique referred to as the Johari window. The idea of unknown unknowns was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft (1916–2014) and Harrington Ingham (1916–1995) in their development of the Johari window. They used it as a tec…
Reaction
While the remarks led to some ridicule towards the Bush administration in general and Rumsfeld in particular, there are those who respect the statement. Defenders include Canadian columnist Mark Steyn, who called it "in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a complex matter", and Australian economist and blogger John Quiggin, who wrote, "Although the language may be tortured, the basic point is both valid and important."
Analytical sciences
The term "known unknowns" has been applied to the identification of chemical substances using analytical chemistry approaches, specifically mass spectrometry. In many cases, an unknown to an investigator that is detected in an experiment is actually known in the chemical literature, a reference database, or an Internet resource. These types of compounds are termed "known unknowns". The term was originally coined by Little et al. and reported a number of times in the l…
See also
• Black swan theory
• Dunning–Kruger effect
• Epistemic modal logic
• Four stages of competence
• I know that I know nothing
External links
• "Defense Department Briefing". C-SPAN. February 12, 2002. Reporter: ...Because there are reports that there is no evidence of a direct link between Baghdad and some of these terrorist organizations. Rumsfeld: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me...
• "DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and General Myers". Transcript. Press Operations. US Department of Defense. February 12, 2002.