who invented polling

What is the origin of polls?

Most modern polls derive from the Gallup method, invented by American George Gallup; This method involves sampling a randomly selected, statistically average group of people. Gallup’s first poll, in 1932, correctly predicted a local election in Iowa.

Who invented the opinion poll?

Opinion polling became an institution in the United States, but took until the early 20th century to really catch on in other countries. George Gallup did not invent the opinion poll, but he did refine it and create a methodology that has become the global standard. Credit Getty Images

When did Gallup start his own polling company?

He was also professor of journalism at Columbia University, but he had to give up this position shortly after he formed his own polling company, the American Institute of Public Opinion (Gallup Poll), in 1935. Gallup is often credited as the developer of public polling.

When was the first Gallup poll conducted in Australia?

In a 1941 pamphlet, a Gallup-affiliated company, Australian Public Opinion Polls, conducted a thorough Gallup poll of Australians on a variety of issues. While there may have been some other kinds of polling before, this survey was the biggest of its kind conducted in Australia at the time.

The Problem of Workforce Shortages and Discontent in Healthcare

Healthcare has been facing the issue of oversupply and undersupplies of health professionals with the recent problem being shortage and discontent of nurses, and other healthcare professionals and experts cite that...

Improving State and Local Government Cybersecurity

Internet technologies have enhanced how local and state governments operate. For example, thanks to these technologies, it has become possible for these governments to automate their operations. However, while the...

Government Policy in the Market

Introduction A market is a place where business organizations and consumers interact. The organizations provide goods and services to consumers, and they get revenues and profits in return in a resource...

The International Civil Aviation Organization

Abstract The United States government invited its allies during the Second World War to a conference in Chicago which lead to the discovery of the Chicago Convention. Out of the invited 55 states and...

Separation of Church and State in American Government

In the present Americans society, religious belief is dynamic, energetic, and widespread that any other time in the history of the country. The issue of immigration regularly introduces new and distinct religious...

Who invented the Gallup poll?

George Gallup. George Horace Gallup (November 18, 1901 – July 26, 1984) was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion .

Who is the father of public polling?

Gallup is often credited as the developer of public polling. In 1932, Gallup did some polling for his mother-in-law, Ola Babcock Miller, a candidate who was a long-shot from winning a position as Iowa Secretary of State. With the Democratic landslide of that year, she won a stunning victory, furthering Gallup's interest in politics.

Why did Gallup believe Truman's election was wrong?

Gallup believed the error was mostly due to ending his polling three weeks before Election Day, thus failing to account for Truman's comeback. In 1947, he launched the Gallup International Association, an international association of polling organizations.

Where was George Gallup born?

Gallup was born in Jefferson, Iowa, the son of Nettie Quella (Davenport) and George Henry Gallup, a dairy farmer. As a teen, George Jr., known then as "Ted", would deliver milk and used his salary to start a newspaper at the high school, where he also played football.

Who did Thomas Dewey beat in the 1948 election?

Twelve years later, his organization had its moment of greatest ignominy, when it predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman in the 1948 election, by between 5 and 15%; Truman won the election by 4.5%.

How did George Gallup die?

Gallup died in 1984 of a heart attack at his summer home in Tschingel ob Gunten, a village in the Bernese Oberland of Switzerland. He was buried in Princeton Cemetery. His wife died in 1988, and their son, writer and pollster George Gallup, Jr., died in 2011.

How did opinion polling develop into popular applications?

Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought , although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as Angus Reid Public Opinion, YouGov and Zogby use Internet surveys, where a sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whomever wishes to participate, rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not generally considered professional.

When did tracking polls start?

Starting in the 1980s, tracking polls and related technologies began having a notable impact on U.S. political leaders. According to Douglas Bailey, a Republican who had helped run Gerald Ford 's 1976 presidential campaign, "It's no longer necessary for a political candidate to guess what an audience thinks. He can [find out] with a nightly tracking poll. So it's no longer likely that political leaders are going to lead. Instead, they're going to follow."

Why are people excluded from polling?

In some places many people have only mobile telephones. Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in the United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call ), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll.

What is an opinion poll?

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster .

How are opinion polls maintained?

Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over the years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of electronic clipboards and Internet based polling. Verbal, ballot, and processed types can be conducted efficiently, contrasted with other types of surveys, systematics, and complicated matrices beyond previous orthodox procedures.

Why are opinion polls bad?

One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have the second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of self-fulfilling prophecy problems. It have been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of the assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important.

How did George Gallup rehabilitate consumer sovereignty?

They rehabilitated the concept of consumer sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led the way.

Who invented the polling method?

Credit Getty Images. Most modern polls derive from the Gallup method, invented by American George Gallup; This method involves sampling a randomly selected, statistically average group of people. Gallup’s first poll, in 1932, correctly predicted a local election in Iowa.

What were the leaders interested in before polling?

However, after the French and American revolutions, when early forms of democracy began to appear, rulers and leaders were more interested in knowing what their citizens were thinking, and how they intended to vote. Before polling became widespread, leaders wanting to gauge public opinion did so in less scientific ways.

What was the Gallup poll of 1941?

An exhaustive Gallup poll in 1941 showed Australians’ attitudes to various social and political issues. Importantly, voting intention was not included. Credit National Library of Australia.

What was the support for Labor in 1943?

By 1943, Gallup polls were being conducted on many subjects, including the upcoming election. A poll conducted a week before the election showed 45% support for the Labor government over 38% for the United Australia Party.

Why do we use public surveys?

The idea of a public survey to predict election results and measure opinion is old, but the methods used have evolved over time. Before democracy became widespread, there was no need for rulers to gauge public opinion, and they had no scientific way of doing so. However, after the French and American revolutions, when early forms of democracy began to appear, rulers and leaders were more interested in knowing what their citizens were thinking, and how they intended to vote.

What is a straw poll?

Before long, publications across the United States were running their own polls, or reporting on polls run by others. This kind of poll, known as a ‘straw poll’, was not very scientific, and their accuracy could vary considerably.

What was the first effort to use trained interviewers?

Later in the 19th century, some efforts were made to make the polling more representative of the community. The Columbus Dispatch , for example, seems to have been the first to consider using trained interviewers to gather information, and sought a balance of age and occupation among those surveyed.

Overview

George Horace Gallup (November 18, 1901 – July 26, 1984) was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion.

History

Sample and polling methods

Potential for inaccuracy

Failures

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.

Social media as a source of opinion on candidates

Influence

Regulation